In 2023, South Korea recorded a fertility rate of 0.72 — the lowest ever recorded in any developed country.
The rate needed to sustain a population is 2.1. South Korea is at a third of that.
In Seoul, it's even lower: 0.58. Barely more than half a child per woman.
What does 0.72 actually mean?
If current rates hold, every 100 South Koreans alive today will produce roughly 6 great-grandchildren. The country's population — currently 52 million — is projected to shrink to around 17 million by the end of the century. Two-thirds of the country, gone within three generations.
It's the most expensive country on Earth to raise a child. The average cost from birth to age 18 is $275,000 (about R5 million) — that's 7.8x the country's GDP per capita. In the US, the same ratio is 4.1x.
Why?
South Korea runs one of the most intense education systems on the planet. Nearly 80% of children attend a hagwon — a private cram school operating evenings and weekends. In 2023, families collectively spent $19 billion on shadow education. The pressure starts in kindergarten and doesn't let up until university entrance exams, which effectively determine a young person's career, marriage prospects, and social standing.
The result: many young Koreans simply opt out. Marriage rates cratered. In a country where marriage is still considered a prerequisite for having children, fewer marriages means far fewer births.
The government has thrown money at it. Over $270 billion in incentives across 16 years — baby bonuses, cash for newlyweds, subsidised childcare. In 2023, Seoul even floated the idea of exempting men from mandatory military service if they had three or more children before age 30.
Almost none of it has worked.
In 2024, the rate ticked up to 0.75 — the first rise in nine years, driven by a 14.9% spike in marriages (partly a post-pandemic bounce). But experts warned against optimism. A rate of 0.75 is still far below replacement. South Korea has been the only OECD country below 1.0 since 2018.
The consequences are already visible. Since 2020, more people have died each year than were born — the population is already shrinking. Paediatric clinics in Seoul fell 12.5% between 2018 and 2022. Doctors are leaving children's medicine because there aren't enough children.
South Korea built the "Miracle on the Han River" — one of the fastest economic transformations in human history, from war-torn poverty to the world's 12th-largest economy in two generations. Now that miracle is facing a threat no policy package has been able to fix: the country is choosing not to have children.