We need a 42% emissions cut by 2030. We managed 1.3% in 2025. Do the math.
The pledges were never enough
Countries submitted climate pledges under Paris, all due to deliver by 2030. Very few are on track. Even if every pledge were fully honoured — which won't happen — the world still lands at 2.5–2.8°C. The ambition was insufficient. The implementation is worse.
Full compliance with every climate pledge on Earth still gets us to 2.5–2.8°C. The targets were never enough.
What is actually working: solar and wind set deployment records in 2024 and 2025 and are now the cheapest new power in most markets. 18.3 million EVs sold in 2025, up 31%, broadly on track with sectoral goals. Amazon deforestation measurably declined under Brazil's policy changes. These wins are real — and not fast enough to offset fossil fuel expansion and industrial growth elsewhere.
What 3.2°C actually looks like
A 3.2°C world isn't just warmer. The damage curves sharply at every decimal. Crop yields fall 10–25% in tropical regions. Sea levels rise 0.5–1.0 metres by 2100, forcing coastal cities to retreat. Ice sheet collapse, Amazon dieback, and permafrost thaw are no longer low-probability scenarios — they are risks that activate across that temperature range.
At 3.2°C, the floods and heatwaves making headlines today become the baseline, not the exception.
2030 is four years away. The question has shifted from whether we overshoot 1.5°C to by how much — and whether action can accelerate before the feedback loops foreclose the choice.
The window to limit overshoot is still open. Barely. And it's closing faster than the pledges are moving.