Paris said 1.5°C. Current policies say 3.2°C. That's not a gap — it's a different planet.
We need a 42% emissions cut by 2030. We managed 1.3% in 2025. Do the math.
3.2°C — where we're actually headed
Current policies put global warming at 3.2°C by 2100. That's more than double the Paris target of 1.5°C and well past the "absolute ceiling" of 2.0°C. To stay on a 1.5°C path, emissions must fall 42% by 2030. Last year's actual drop: 1.3%.
The pledge gap is the whole problem
Countries submitted climate pledges (NDCs) under Paris — all due to deliver by 2030. Very few are on track. Even if every pledge were fully honoured — which won't happen — we'd still land at 2.5-2.8°C. The ambition was insufficient. The implementation is worse.
Full compliance with every climate pledge on Earth still gets us to 2.5–2.8°C. The targets were never enough.
What is actually working
- Solar and wind — record deployment in 2024 and 2025, cheapest new power in most markets
- EVs — 18.3 million sold in 2025, up 31%, broadly on track with climate goals
- Amazon deforestation — policy changes produced measurable decline in Brazil
These wins are real. They're just not fast enough to offset fossil fuel expansion and industrial growth elsewhere.
3.2°C — what that actually looks like
A 3.2°C world isn't just warmer. The damage curves sharply at every decimal. Key projected consequences:
- Crop yields fall 10-25% in tropical regions — severe food system disruption
- Sea levels rise 0.5-1.0 metres by 2100 — coastal cities underwater or retreating
- Extreme weather becomes routine — today's "once in 50 years" is next decade's normal
- Tipping points risk activation — ice sheet collapse, Amazon dieback, permafrost thaw
At 3.2°C, the floods and heatwaves making headlines today become the baseline, not the exception.
2030 is not a distant deadline
It's four years away. The targets set for 2030 were the mechanism to keep 1.5°C alive. At current pace they will not be met. The question has shifted: not whether we overshoot 1.5°C, but by how much — and whether action can accelerate before the feedback loops take over.
The window to limit overshoot is still open. Barely. And it's closing faster than the pledges are moving.